Lottery Odds Explained: Every UK and Irish Game Side by Side

Jackpot odds are quoted constantly, but they are rarely placed next to each other, which makes it hard to develop any intuition for how the games compare. This page sets out the exact figures for every game Tumbla supports, and shows how the numbers are produced so you can check them yourself.

How jackpot odds are calculated

A jackpot requires you to match an exact set of numbers. The number of possible sets is worked out using combinations, which counts how many different ways you can choose a group from a larger group when the order does not matter.

For a game where you choose 6 numbers from a pool of 59, the number of possible combinations is written as 59 choose 6, and it equals 45,057,474. Since exactly one of those combinations is the winning one, your odds are 1 in 45,057,474.

When a game has a separate bonus or star ball drawn from its own pool, you multiply the two counts together. That multiplication is why an extra ball has such a dramatic effect on the headline odds.

UK Lotto (6 numbers from 59)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 45,057,474.

Six numbers are drawn from a pool of 59, and the jackpot is shared between all tickets matching all six.

EuroMillions (5 numbers from 50, plus 2 Lucky Stars from 12)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 139,838,160.

There are 2,118,760 ways to choose five numbers from fifty, and 66 ways to choose two Lucky Stars from twelve. Multiplying those gives 139,838,160.

Powerball (5 numbers from 69, plus 1 Powerball from 26)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 292,201,338.

This is the longest jackpot odds of any game Tumbla supports. There are 11,238,513 main combinations, multiplied by 26 possible Powerball numbers.

Set For Life (5 numbers from 47, plus 1 Life Ball from 10)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 15,339,390.

Thunderball (5 numbers from 39, plus 1 Thunderball from 14)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 8,060,598.

Lotto HotPicks (5 numbers from 59)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 5,006,386.

Irish Lotto (6 numbers from 45)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 8,145,060.

This figure reflects the smaller pool that has been in place since the September 2026 rule change. Before the pool was reduced from 47 to 45, the jackpot odds were 1 in 10,737,573, so the change made the top prize meaningfully easier to win while also adding a Monday draw.

EuroDreams (6 numbers from 40, plus 1 Dream Number from 5)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 19,191,900.

The top prize in this game is paid as a regular monthly income rather than as a single lump sum, which makes it a different proposition from a conventional jackpot.

Daily Million (6 numbers from 39)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 3,262,623.

This is the shortest jackpot odds of any game in the app, and it is drawn every day of the week.

Lotto 5-4-3-2-1 (6 numbers from 47)

Jackpot odds: 1 in 10,737,573.

Also drawn daily, with a considerably larger pool than Daily Million.

What the comparison shows

The range is enormous. The easiest jackpot here, Daily Million at roughly 1 in 3.3 million, is almost ninety times more likely than the hardest, Powerball at roughly 1 in 292 million.

That difference has nothing to do with how the balls behave. It is entirely a consequence of pool sizes and how many balls you have to match. Every ball added to a pool, and every extra ball you must match, multiplies the number of combinations.

A caution about prize odds

The figures above are jackpot odds, which is not the same as the odds of winning any prize at all. Most games have a long list of lower tiers, and the chance of collecting something small is far higher than the chance of collecting the top prize.

Those two numbers are often used interchangeably in advertising, and they mean very different things. When you see a claim about "odds of winning", it is worth checking which one is being quoted.

One more number worth remembering

Tumbla's numbers are generated for entertainment. No selection method, however sophisticated, changes the probability of matching a draw, and anyone who claims otherwise is mistaken. What a good number picker can do is spread your choices sensibly across the pool and avoid the most heavily played combinations, which affects how a prize is shared rather than whether it is won.

Play within your means, and treat every ticket as the cost of a bit of fun.